Northern NJ Real Estate Market: September 2026 | How's the Market, Joe?

How Does The Market Feel Right Now?

Northern NJ is feeling a bit sluggish right now. I'm getting the same reports from other Realtors and sellers, and I'm seeing it in my own business.

Many buyers have decided to sit on the sidelines as mortgage rates climbed to 7.4%. As of November 5, rates are sitting at 7.18%. That's still high, but at least they've been heading in the right direction.

How Many Times Have Mortgage Rates Gone Above 7%?

Mortgage rates have climbed above 7% five separate times since October 2022, including the most recent rise in 2026.

What's interesting is that every previous time, they eventually came back down below 7%, sometimes reaching the low 6% range.

Here's a look at how rates have moved over the last four years.

The numbers tell an interesting story:

• 5 separate periods when mortgage rates climbed above 7% since October 2022.
• 4 previous returns below 7%. Every completed period above 7% was followed by a decline.
• 5.98% in February 2026, the lowest rate among the dates listed above.

Now, that doesn't mean rates are guaranteed to fall again. But it does show how quickly things can change. We've seen rates move above 7%, come back down, and then climb again several times over the last four years. So take that for what it's worth.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US).

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Investors?

I think this is a good opportunity to buy, especially when it comes to homes that have been sitting on the market.

Many sellers today have been thinking about selling for at least a year or more, so their idea of what their home is worth may still be based on what the market was doing back then.

The longer a home sits, the more the seller starts realizing this is a different market and they may need to lower their price.

My advice is to get in there before that happens. Once a seller reduces their price, they may attract a whole new group of buyers. You may have a better opportunity to negotiate before that happens.

What Should Sellers Know Right Now?

I'll build on what I said above. The real estate market is like most markets. It can change quickly.

I don't see signs of a housing crisis or crash right now. In fact, four of the five counties we're looking at still have less than three months of housing supply, which indicates a seller's market.

But the days of expecting 10% to 20% over asking price when you're already listed above market value are not what we're experiencing at this moment.

In fact, I'd say pricing your home correctly is more important now than it has been in the last three or four years!

Why?

Because before, you could be totally off on your list price, too high or too low, and you'd still make out pretty well. Buyers were desperate, competition was strong, and mortgage rates were much more manageable. You also had New Yorkers anxious to move here and willing to spend more because it was worth it to them when comparing home values to where they were coming from.

I believe much of that wave of New Yorkers looking to move here has already passed. On top of that, the cost of goods and services remains high, along with housing prices and mortgage rates.

So before listing your home, be sure to really look at current sales, available inventory, and what buyers are willing to pay today, not what they were paying a year ago.

September 2026: What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

Looking at September's numbers, you might be surprised to see that median sale prices increased in all five counties compared with last year. Homes are also still selling above asking price on average.

But there's something important to understand about these numbers.

September's closed sales don't necessarily reflect what was happening with buyers in September or right now.

Many homes that closed in September likely went under contract in July or August, before mortgage rates climbed above 7%. Some of those buyers may also have been motivated to move before the new school year began.

What I'm seeing in the market today is slower buyer activity, and we may begin to see that reflected in the October reports. I'll have those for you when they come out.

Here's how the five counties compared in September here in Northern NJ:

We're seeing more homes become available, but that doesn't mean we've suddenly shifted into a buyer's market.

Four of the five counties still have less than three months of housing supply, and sellers are still receiving more than asking price on average.

But not every county is seeing the same changes. Hudson County, for example, has 4.6 months of housing supply, while Essex County continues to see homes selling for an average of 106.3% of asking price.

My Take: Where Is the Market Heading?

The September numbers still point to a seller's market in most of Northern NJ, but keep in mind that October's reports have not been released yet.

What these numbers don't tell us is what people are experiencing in the market right now.

From what I'm seeing, things are a bit more sluggish. There are fewer active buyers, and even those who are looking don't seem to have the same urgency to make an offer. Some are taking their time, scheduling second showings, and thinking things over rather than making an offer right away.

It's definitely different from what we were experiencing over the last few years.

For buyers, this may mean more opportunities to negotiate. For sellers, it's another reason why pricing your home correctly is so important.

The market is changing, but not every town or county is changing at the same pace.

That's why I study the numbers every month, along with what I'm seeing firsthand with buyers and sellers.

Housing data source: NJ REALTORS®, September 2026 Single Family Housing Market Reports.

Have Questions About Your Local Real Estate Market?

I'm Joe Charles, a Realtor serving Northern New Jersey.

Whether you're considering buying, selling, or just want to better understand what's happening in your local market, feel free to call or text me at 973-826-2293.

No pressure. Just good advice and access to my team of experts whenever you need it.

Joe Charles
Prominent Properties Sotheby's International Realty