Rates continue to move in the right direction and are now at their lowest levels so far this year, trending toward 6.5% on a 30-year fixed.
We all know the number of homes for sale is extremely low, but what could be the trigger to change that?
The 6.5% Trigger: What Happened Last Time?
But there's something interesting to note: the last time rates went below 6.5% was in August and September of 2024. When that happened, there was an unexpected surge in inventory. That seemed to end soon after the Feds cut their rates, as mortgage rates shot back up, leading to a miserable December for real estate sales. It's uncertain if there was a correlation there, but that cut by the Feds in September could arguably be the trigger. See the data below.
Mortgage News Daily Mortgage Rates June 24' to March 25'
Take a look at the graph above and compare it to the first time the Feds made their cut in the chart below.
What the Data Tells Us
Now, let's look at the data from Northern NJ counties, compiled from Redfin, covering September through November 2024. There was a massive year-over-year increase in home sales across our area, except for Passaic County, which clearly stands out. However, after looking deeper into the numbers, it seems that the decline was largely due to a significant reduction in townhome and condo listings in that area. Interestingly, despite this, Passaic County still had more homes for sale compared to the same period in 2022 and 2023.
Northern NJ County Inventory September to November 2024
What’s Next? Spring Market Outlook
So, is this a good sign for a very active spring market with more new listings and pending sales? It appears that way to me as long as nothing unforeseen happens to the market. Let's hope this inventory issue finally breaks in our area!
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Joseph Charles | Call, text 973.715.8766 or Message Me Here
